Meeting notice: The 01.12.18 meeting will be held at 7:30 p.m. at the Royal East (782 Main St., Cambridge), a block down from the corner of Main St. and Mass Ave. If you're new and can't recognize us, ask the manager. He'll probably know where we are. More details below. <-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-> Suggested topic: Moore's Law and globalization The argument that we are living, or at least entering, a "new economy," rests on two legs: the spread of computers and the ongoing rationalization of the world economy. While the first point gets most of the press, the latter may be almost as important. Small, locally defined markets sacrifice value both by limiting economies of scale and the growth of specialization. Increases in efficiency are inevitable as markets grow; over time those increases should release a very substantial stream of value into the world economy. There is considerable speculation that 9/11, the global recession, and a general inflammation of the political landscape world-wide might derail this rationalization. It could be argued in response that geopolitical affinities are ultimately defined not by political or cultural sentiment but by the costs of communication and transportation. At cost point X we are the loyal sons and daughters of Boston; at X/2, of Massachusetts; at X/10, of the United States. In the past twenty years or so a number of technologies (container ships, optic fiber, etc., etc.) have reduced both sets of prices steadily. The emergence of 'globalization' as an issue and cultural trend followed. Future price declines are inevitable. As they work their way out into the world a deeper integration of cultures and economies should follow automatically. Physics can be fought for just so long. One counter is that this dynamic has, at least for the short run, bottomed out. No significant near-term economies in transportation seem to be in the pipeline. (Eventually remotely controlled and/or autonomous vehicles might kick off a new round of price declines, but that is not imminent.) While the cost of a basket of communications will surely continue to fall - - Korean vendors are about to start rolling out 20 megabit broadband -- you can argue that international communications is already so cheap that further gains just won't matter. This might not be entirely true -- cheap 24x7 HD large screeen videowalls might have a significant integrating effect -- but certainly nothing with like another internet is in prospect. Looking just at communications and transportation, it would seem we can no longer expect to receive the 'rationalization dividend' we have been enjoying over the past few years. However, it is possible that soon a third economic parameter will start defining geopolitical affinities -- the cost of computation and data storage. Unlike transportation, dramatic improvements in computation and storage are visibly working through the pipeline. Unlike communications, we know where to put those improvements where they will matter: in realtime speech translation, multilingual search engines; and cross border supply chain and asset management simulations. At some point soon a half a dozen people, each speaking a different language, wil be able to collaborate on the same project, with each person's speech being translated in real time into languages of the other participants. It will be possible to run searches in resource databases built out of several different languges simultaneously. It will be possible to define, set up, and manage outsourcing relationships and other complicated transactions across the borders of a half a dozen countries at once. All of these functions will be made possible and steadily improved by improvements in computation speeds. Over time Moore's Law might emerge as the primary driver in the integration of global economies. <-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-> This year the AAAS Annual Meeting is being held in Boston. February 14-19. Special session on "Nanotechnology and the Genomes around Us". For details visit http://www.aaasmeeting.org/. <-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-> Nanotech's Pitch for Megabucks By Declan McCullagh (declan@wired.com) 2:00 a.m. Dec. 15, 2001 PST WASHINGTON -- The U.S. nanotechnology industry may be young, but it's fast becoming an old hand at demanding its share of the federal pork barrel. During one of the first nanotech policy events ever in Washington, an industry trade association clamored for billions of tax dollars in new spending. For a bit of insider help, the Nanobusiness Alliance has turned to one of the savviest politicians around, who also happens to be a self-described futurist: former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Gingrich, the politico who once wanted to hand laptops to poor kids, will serve as the group's honorary chairman. [...] The Nanobusiness Alliance already has learned one of the most important lessons of Washington politics: When asking for money, stay relevant. In an announcement of the event, it played up an anti-terrorist theme: "Nanotechnology is already having a major impact on homeland security (and) disease detection...." For more see: www.wired.com/news/politics/0,1283,49147,00.html <-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-> In twenty years half the population of Europe will have visited the moon. -- Jules Verne, 1865 <-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-> Announcement Archive: http://www.pobox.com/~fhapgood/nsgpage.html. <-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-> Legend: "NSG" expands to Nanotechnology Study Group. 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